Oil prices could rise to $100 a barrel by 2019, warn merchants


With prices recently hovering around $80 a barrel for Brent crude, Trump has used Twitter and other means to lean on OPEC to increase oil supplies.

Saudi Arabia leads the Opec oil cartel, while Russian Federation is the biggest oil producer outside the group. OPEC and non-OPEC, including Russian Federation, gathered in Algiers on Sunday for a meeting that ended with no recommendations for any additional supply boost to counter falling supply from Iran.

Last year, Opec and other oil-producing nations including Russian Federation said they would extend a deal, first agreed in 2016, to cut production to help support oil prices after they fell below $50 a barrel.

The bank said "the Iran factor may dominate the market near-term and cause a (crude price) spike", although it added that emerging market "demand concerns could reappear thereafter".

Iran's OPEC Representative Hossein Kazempour told CNBC in Algiers on Sunday that the oil prices would be cheaper if Trump would stop tweeting and drawing attention to them.

Fund managers are betting the introduction of sanctions on Iran will result in a shortage of seaborne crude on worldwide markets even while the landlocked USA inland market remains plentifully supplied.

Global crude prices would rise at a faster price in the rest of the year and could touch $100 by December, analysts have warned.

Richard Robinson, manager of the Ashburton Global Energy Fund, said higher prices were nearly certainly on the cards.

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Meeting in Algiers, officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and producers, including Russian Federation, said after having increased production in recent months, customers now have adequate supplies.

Oil has rallied since the lows of August as speculation swirls over whether OPEC and its allies will boost output as the sanctions on the Middle East nation's exports nears.

Brent crude futures were down 4 cents at $81.83 a barrel by 0342 GMT, after gaining almost 1 per cent the previous session.

One respected commentator also questioned OPEC's ability to calm the tensions in a market where Iran's oil supplies are collapsing due to U.S. sanctions, with spare capacity dwindling and production unsustainable for many member states.

4 will target Iran's oil exports with sanctions, and Washington is putting pressure on governments and companies around the world to fall in line and cut purchases from Tehran.

However, the consensus has now moved to as much as 1.5 million barrels daily as the U.S.is“incredibly serious” about its measures, he said.

"If an increase in production is proposed there will be plenty of market counter-argument that it reduces even further the available spare capacity", Olivier Jakob from consultancy Petromatrix said. Analysts say Trump wants to try to head off higher gasoline prices that could hurt Republican candidates in the November elections.